Week 11 Next Gen Stats fantasy football matchups Published: Nov 17, 2016 at 10:00 AM Matt Harmon Exploiting matchups is key in fantasy and can help us unearth sleepers, value plays and also alert us to when we should fade or lower expectations for more establish studs. There are a number of statistics and data-based tools to helps us decipher which matchups to exploit and which to avoid, and one of which is the NFL's package -- not just the fancy speed numbers you see on television. Here we'll look where cornerbacks and wide receivers line up, which defenses are particularly susceptible to which player packages and so much more in order to find value with our fantasy players. As the season goes along we'll have even more data to use and a better understanding of the . Here are the top matchups that could bring value in Week 11. Jordy Nelson vs. Josh Norman It was something of a slow start to the 2016 season for . His touchdown production propped up his value for fantasy but it was clear watching the games he did not look like the of old. While he still might not be at the dominant form he once held, Nelson has played much better the last three weeks and has been earning much more consistent separation. In Weeks 1 through 7 Nelson averaged a mere 2.4 yards of separation at target, which is below the league average. He came crashing down to 0.9 yards of separation on the Thursday night win over the in Week 7. However, over the last three weeks, Nelson averaged 3.5 yards of separation at target. In addition to his improved individual play, the key for the has been their ability to move Nelson around to get him more in more favorable positions. Over the last three weeks the veteran has accumulated 42.7 percent of his yardage in the slot. The two-way release and softer coverage on the inside has certainly helped boost Nelson's separation numbers of late. Jordy Nelson's route chart from Week 8. Note the big play out of the slot, his longest Jaromir Jagr Women Jersey catch of the year. Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) Nelson's lineup flexibility will be key to avoiding , who is having yet another outstanding season, in coverage on Sunday night. Norman primarily lines up at left corner (61 percent) and Nelson takes the majority of his snaps (49 percent) at right wide receiver. On a few occasions Norman has shadowed top receivers on their outside snaps, including , , and . However, he rarely travels into the slot as evidenced by last week's game against . The star collected 11 of his 13 catches from the slot and was only saw Norman's coverage on two plays, both of came outside where Diggs lined up on just six total pa sing plays. If Nelson does draw Norman in coverage, it would set up and even for big games. Adams is beginning to develop into more of a downfield threat. On the season he averages 24.9 percent share of Rodgers' intended air yards on the season, but that number jumped to 31.8 percent in Week 10 against the . Aaron Rodgers averaged over 18 air yards per target when throwing to Davante Adams today. His route chart from Week 10 Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) should also be in positon to get back on track if Nelson is locked up. Washington allows the sixth-most yards to slot receivers with. On the season slot receivers have recorded 51 catches, 648 yards, and three scores against them. Dallas pa sing game vs. the Ravens defense has a concerning one-catch for 19-yards clunker stuck between two dominant outings with 110-plus yards and a touchdown. While it's not much of a concern for Dallas because they keep on winning, fretting fantasy owners can't be too thrilled. Part of what makes so great is that he won't force the ball to any one player, and will take what the defense leaves open for him. Bryant has also primarily been strictly a downfield threat for the since his return from injury. Bryant led all receivers in with Week 8 with 24.1 average air yards per reception and owned a whopping 61.6 percent share of Prescott's intended air yards in Week 10, which trailed only ' 68.9 percent share of ' on the week. Dez Bryant had a 61.6% share of Dak Prescott's intended air yards in Week 10, 2nd highest share of any WR on the week Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) Bryant could be in a bit of a tough spot again this week, as he may draw shadow coverage from the underrated top corner . On three occasions this season Smith has tracked the opposition's top receiver: vs. Jimmy SmithTargets: 4Catches: 3Yards: 35Touchdowns: 0 vs. Jimmy SmithTargets: 3Catches: 0Yards: 0 Touchdowns: 0 vs. Jimmy SmithTargets: 8Catches: 5Yards: 52Touchdowns: 0 However, if Bryant is tangled up with Smith's coverage, it could put , or even in positon for a big game. Beasley or Witten would be the obvious choices, but the have not been kind to slot receiver or tight ends, especially. Baltimore allowed 43 measly yards to tight ends over the last month. Beasley could have a solid floor, and is a factor in the red zone, but the allow the ninth-fewest yards to slot receivers on the year with just 609. Williams is impo sible to trust and has just 49 yards receiving in the last three games total with Bryant back. However, he takes 51 percent of his snaps at the right wide receiver position, and the have just bled production to that spot with a combination of the now benched and "holding it down" at left corner. If the matchup dictates to go away from a well-covered and send some targets Williams' way, we know there is precedent for the rookie finding the favorable spot to exploit. Raiders receivers vs. Texans secondary Coming off a bye week and headed to Mexico City for this game, enters a Week 11 showdown as one of the NFL's best deep pa sers. Carr has a 116.7 pa ser rating on pa ses that travel 20-plus yards in the air. While their run defense has started to show some cracks without , the pa s defense has held up their end of the bargain ranking sixth in a net yards per pa s attempt allowed. The perennially underrated Jonathan Joseph is the main cog keeping the secondary in dominant form. Joseph has not allowed a touchdown catch since Week 1 of the 2015 season and is still in shutdown Tyler Pitlick Jersey form this year: Jonathan Joseph in coverageTargets: 44Receptions: 27Yards: 318Touchdowns: 0Pa ser Rating: 83.3 Joseph takes 86.3 percent of his snaps at left corner on the season. That indicates that will draw his coverage most often, as he takes the majority of his snaps (50 percent) at right wide receiver. Crabtree is having another strong season, and is on pace for his first 1,000-yard campaign since 2012. As one of the best route-runners in the NFL and a top red zone threat, Crabtree can always win on short patterns and in scoring position, as he did against the earlier this season: Michael Crabtree once again leads the in targets and had 44.2% of Carr's pa sing yards yesterday.His route chart Matt Miro Heiskanen Jersey Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) It may be tough for Crabtree to acce s his ceiling with Joseph in coverage, however, as his two 20-plus air yard touchdowns have come with Casey Heyward and covering him. Should Joseph lock Crabtree down, should find succe s on the other side of the field. Amari Cooper's route chart from Week 8. He has accumulated 52% of his yardage when lined up at left WR Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) The majority of Cooper's production comes when he lines up at left wide receiver. The second-year wideout has 51 percent of his targets, 50 percent of his catches and 52 percent of his yards when he lines up wide left. right corer is a solid player, but he's certainly not as strong as Joseph in coverage. C.J. Prosise vs. the Eagles It's been almost a full calendar year since we've seen play effectively in an NFL game. Rawls was averaging 7.3 yards per carry against the way back on the 13th of December in 2015 before suffering a season-ending injury. Since then, Rawls mi sed the vast majority of the offseason recovering from that ankle malady, averaged 1.3 yards per carry in his only two games this season and sat out seven straight games with a fractured fibula. Rawls was one of the best pure runners in the NFL during his time as a starter last season. No running back averaged a shorter distance traveled per rush yard gained, as Rawls' 3.5 was ranked first among running backs with 100 or more carries. Next Gen Stats' efficiency metric for running backs shows a relation to power runners who get through open holes and downfield in a hurry. Indeed, Rawls' proficiency as a sustaining power runner was a crucial element for the offense last year. However, to call him anything but a complete wildcard would be disingenuous. Rookie may well hold onto a big role in the backfield even with Rawls' return. Of course, Prosise is not the runner that his counterpart is. He averaged 5.8 yards of distance traveled per rush yard gained in Week 9 against the and 4.8 against the . It is notable that the rookie did show some ability to run inside, as his efficiency marks improved when he garnered 17 carries as the clear-cut starter. What Prosise does do, however, is add an additional high-end threat as a receiver. The are finding creative ways to get him the ball and lining him up all over the formation. Since his return from injury in Week 7 he has 78 receiving yards when not lined up in the backfield (slot or out wide). His 19.5 yards per reception on those plays leads all running backs who have played 10 or more snaps out wide or in the slot. For context, averages 11.6 yards per catch on his receptions when lined up away from the backfield. Prosise has a ma sive edge on Rawls as pa s-catching a set. In what is a newfound Seattle offense, the dynamic receiving back could have a clear edge in the path to playing time over the power back. The are now officially a pa s-first team: Percentage of plays run with a pa s attempt2014: 44.5 percent2015: 47.2 percent2016: 57.5 percent On Sunday, Seattle welcomes an defense that plays much worse on the road than it does in their own building. Don't be surprised if is still clearly the lead back and sustains his strong momentum in Week 11. Titans pa sing game vs. the Colts secondary Not many pa sing offenses are as hot as the unit right now, which is certainly not something we expected to say this season. However, and his playmakers are putting up ma sive numbers. Of late their production has only increased. Much of that can be attributed to improvements and changes in the personnel at wide receiver. receivers:2.8 yards of separation (26th) in Weeks 1-5 3.2 yards (8th) in Weeks 6-10Mariota's Week 10 pa sing chart Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) It was clear in the first few weeks that the were asking too much of their fifth-round rookie receiver and that Andre Johnson offered nothing to the team: wide receiver snap share Weeks 1-5Tajae Sharpe: 87 percentRishard Matthews: 52 percentAndre Johnson: 43 percentHarry Douglas: 24 percentKendall Wright: 13 percent (two games played) The team clearly wasn't getting enough from that collection of wideouts. So they changed up the playing time distribution, and benefitted from the healthy return of and Johnson's retirement: wide receiver snap share Weeks 6-10Rishard Matthews: 73 percentTajae Ben Bishop Jersey Sharpe: 72 percentKendall Wright: 47 percentAndre Johnson: 21 percent (retired in Week 8)Harry Douglas: six percent All of these players have been more effective at creating separation now that they are in more comfortable roles. Even , who sees a lot le s of the field, saw his average separation at target jump from 2.2 in Weeks 1 through 5 to 2.9 in Weeks 6 through 10. While he has not cracked 70 receiving yards since Week 1, we did finally see Sharpe get into the end zone for his first career touchdown on Sunday. The real riser here is , who has played 88, 89 and 82 percent of the snaps the last three games. He's been the clear lead receiver with 26 percent of Mariota's intended air yards over the last two games: Rishard Matthews' route chart from Week 9. Leads the Titans with a 26% share of intended air yards the last 2 weeks Matt Harmon (@MattHarmon_BYB) In Week 10, Matthews will once again be in an ideal spot. should be the one who finds himself tangled up with top cornerback . Hardly shadowing this season, Davis takes 79.8 percent of his snaps at right cornerback. Sharpe aligns at left wide receiver on 54 percent of his plays. Matthews, on the other hand, takes 43 percent of his snaps at right wide receiver. Not only will Matthews be in a favorable position running most of his routes at at right corner, but should have a good matchup with burnable slot corner . At least that's what the Week 10 alignment would tell us. The also struggle to defend the tight end positon. Indianapolis allows the fourth-most yards to tight ends out of the slot and the 10th most yards to tight ends lined up out wide. is one of the biggest threats as a move tight end in the NFL. So far this season Walker accumulates 47 percent of his yards when lined up out of the slot and 11 percent out wide. He's only lined up as a traditional tight end on 37 percent of his snaps. Todd Gurley vs. the Dolphins It has not been the year many expected for . The starting running back averages a measly 3.1 yards per carry and is on pace for just 915 yards on the ground. In their first year in Los Angeles, the team has skewed far more run heavy than anyone could have expected. The run the ball on 40.2 percent of their plays this season, which ranks 17th in the NFL. Much of the i sue lies not with Gurley himself, but with the lackluster supporting cast around him, especially at quarterback. Despite throwing up some surprisingly productive games, no team has respected him enough to do anything but dedicate ma s resources to stopping the run. Excluding red zone carries, 41 of Gurley's rush attempts have come against stacked boxes (eight-plus defenders), the sixth most among NFL running backs. He hasn't been able to make the best of a bad situation, as he averages 2.1 yards per carry against stacked boxes, which ranks 34 out of 39 who have 10 or more carries against eight men boxes. With problems on the offensive line compounding Gurley's already tough situation, he just cannot find room to run. The league average for distance traveled per rush yards gained is 4.1. Gurley has only come in under that mark in just two games this season: 's rushing efficiency (distance traveled per rush yard gained)Week 1 - 6.3Week 2- 5.5Week 3 - 4.6Week 4 - 7.1Week 5 - 4.8Week 6 - 3.3Week 7 - 4.4Week 9 - 4.0Week 10 - 4.3 The two games where he did check in with a better than league average efficiency were the only two contests where he averaged over four yards with 4.1 in Week 6 and 4.0 in Week 9. However, they are also the only two games where he saw fewer than 15 carries, with 14 and 12 respectively. Is it all on the situation? Mostly, but Around the NFL sage that when watching game film, he sees "Gurley misreading open holes at the line of scrimmage this season." We seling theorizes that while Gurley's individual talent is still not in question, "it can be argued that he has been forced into bad habits by an overpowered offensive line and an anemic aerial 'attack'." There is a changing variable for Gurley's outlook this week, as the team will finally start No. 1 overall pick at quarterback. Neverthele s, it's unlikely that Goff's presence will be enough for teams to stop dedicating extra resources to slow down Gurley. Anyone who watched the preseason knows exactly why it took Goff so long to see the field. He's hardly ready to start dictating defensive game plans. The travel to Los Angeles this week to take on the . Miami has a league-average run defense, giving up 4.2 yards per carry to running backs on the year which ranks 16th on the season. However, over the last month they've allowed just 3.79 yards per carry. As the team improves overall Valeri Nichushkin Women Jersey with reviving the offense, it's clear the front seven is more engaged and flying to the football. At some point, might be enough to fix the i sues that have plagued Gurley all year. It does not look like it will be a one-week fix, however. This article has been reproduced in a new format and may be mi sing content or contain faulty links. Please use the Contact Us link in our site footer to report an i sue.
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